Shin Favorite-Longshot Bias Recalibration
·
Prediction Markets Radar
Polymarket vs Quant Fair Value Edge Matrix
Plotting 20 live event contracts. Vertical distance from the 45° Fair Value Line reveals actionable pricing dislocations between crowd consensus and Bayesian econometric fundamentals.
MASSIVE LONG EDGE (Δ > +15%)
OVERPRICED FAD (Δ < -10%)
FAVORITE-LONGSHOT PHENOMENON
Sub-15% geopolitical tail events consistently trade at a 4.2x implied volatility premium on retail books. Gazzetta models systematically capture this variance risk premium.
AVERAGE ACTIVE ARBITRAGE SPREAD
+18.4% DELTA
Across 20 high-liquidity macro contracts.
SHIN INSIDER LEAKAGE PARAMETER (Z)
z = 0.084
Indicates institutional informed order accumulation.
POLYMARKET DISLOCATION ORBIT · 20 ACTIVE CONTRACTS